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Why the Kim Jong Un rumors deserve skepticism

by Tom Rogan

 | April 25, 2020 03:27 PM

s North Korean leader Kim Jong Un dead? Is he in a critical condition?

Here's why I believe the answer to both questions is no.

First off, at least as of this writing, the U.S. intelligence community, the U.S. military, and their counterpart services in South Korea have no credible evidence of Kim's death or serious ill-health. That matters because the United States has a very robust and wide-ranging intelligence effort to monitor Kim's situation and those of his inner circle at all times. As I understand it, there are no significant aberrations in this pattern of life analysis.

What of the news reports suggesting otherwise, you ask?

Well, those rumors online are being circulated by unreliable sources. And then being recirculated by more reliable sources. The silliness includes a fake image of Kim's body in a casket. And while Reuters reports that a Chinese team including doctors has been sent to North Korea, I am led to believe this is not in relation to any major health concern pertaining to Kim. The Chinese government is also acting normally, which would not be the case were Kim dead or dying.

Of course, all of this begs another question: Why, if Kim is OK, wouldn't the North Koreans simply come out and say so?

Well, there are a few possible reasons.

For a start, the dynastic regime is always exceptionally guarded about Kim's health. This includes situations where Kim is mildly ill, such as with the reported case of gout he suffered in 2014. Pyongyang wants to purvey the image of a leader who is in total control, a la Big Brother from 1984. Not the image of a fat guy who can't handle his cheese.

There's also the possibility that Kim simply doesn't care about the speculation. As the superb 38 North website observes, Kim appears to be at one of his luxury retreats on North Korea's east coast. Perhaps he's overlooking the Pacific Ocean, enjoying fine dining, and laughing at Twitter's explosion (Kim pays close personal attention to online news and speculation).

Or maybe Kim is finding domestic benefit in global speculation over his condition?

Hyperparanoid, Kim has never been comfortable with his security in power. Even by North Korean standards, the degree to which Kim has shuffled senior leaders in and out of positions of power has been striking. His willingness to kill top officials is also a symptom of his paranoia and of his constant desire to remind regime elites that he is the sole and unquestioned boss. Kim might consider that allowing these rumors to spread will draw out potential challengers to his rule. Might the North Korean leader be dangling the prospect of blood in the water to see which sharks might come to bite?

There's another related prospect here. Namely, that Kim is trying to gauge how much the U.S. and South Korean governments know about his situation. Consider, for example, that if Kim is able to get a White House statement on his status, he can assess how much the U.S. knows about his situation in any one moment. In essence, he would be using rumors over his own health as bait to assess how good U.S. intelligence is at monitoring him.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Kim is dead from a heart attack, brain-dead from oxygen starvation, or critically ill. But I don't think so.